Sarkozy-Juppé Redux?
The French political scene has been stabilized by the victory last Sunday of Jean-Louis Costes, the UMP (Union Pour Un Mouvement Populaire) deputy who defeated the FN (Front National) candidate over the seat that used to Jerome Cahuzac's. Cahuzac, the PS (Parti Socialiste) minister in the cabinet of President François Hollande, was forced to resign for having a Swiss bank account, legal under French law, but not under PS rules. Cahuzac, who was Mayor of Villeneuve-sur-Lot before becoming a député, repeatedly denied the existence of the account, both publicly and to intimates, a posture which undoubtedly gave greater force to the clamor. Having come clean, he still considered himself politically viable, a measure of either his arrogance or self-delusion. An inquiry directed, in part, at determining why Swiss authorities released the damning information, is in progress, and has caught in its net Cahuzac's former wife, a pale blonde beauty described alternatively as "cold" or "shy". The former Madame Cahuzac's prior denials of knowledge of the existence of the account lack a certain credibility in some circles: she is dermatologist who specializes in hair transplants, not an average housewife. Her former husband was a plastic surgeon until his interest in politics took precedence over his medical career.
The victory of the UMP was in good part the result of the temporary pact between the UMP and the PS; the latter ordered the losing candidate, Bernard Barral, to campaign with Costes to defeat the FN. The FN has been sidelined for the moment, and with François Hollande a millstone around the neck of the PS, the UMP can turn to what it knows best: infighting over who will be its leader and candidate for the presidency in 2017. All of which has the French press enjoying a field day over the possible return to public life of Nicolas Sarkozy, the Richard Nixon of France.
The comparisons between Sarkozy and Nixon are not ill-founded. While Nixon was dogged by his lies about Watergate and resigned, and Sakozy, merely defeated in his re-election bid, both inspired comparable dislike among their respective voters. Nixon and Sarkozy both trained as lawyers and have Machiavellian reputations. In the French press it is now said that Sarkozy watched his loyal Prime Minister, François Fillon, and the General Secretary of the UMP, Jean-François Copé, duke it out in a leadership contest last November, a duel that left both men badly damaged and which has paved the way for Sarkozy to return to public life. Specifically, Copé declared himself elected with 50.3% of the vote of party members, Fillon alleged fraud and asserted his own victory, Copé made counter-charges. Not a pretty picture.
In the aftermath of the débacle, speculation that, having sowed dissension in the first place, Sarkozy would now conquer, was widely bruited. Sarkozy's rejected his financier brother's invitation to work with him drumming up business with Qatar so he could keep his options open (French voters would hold the money to be made against Sarkozy's return --c.f., The French Are Funny About Money, an earlier post). Sarkozy is also said to have turned aside his mediagenic wife's entreaties to forget politics and concentrate on life outside politics, including raising the daughter born to Carla Bruni, the wealthy Italian model and singer who is Sarkozy's third wife.
From an office on rue Meromesnil in Paris, "Sarko" continues to meet visitors interested in his and their political future: for example, Jean-Michel Costes, whose little star twinkles after the victory in Villeneuve-sur-Lot --if only for a day. Sarkozy loyalists speak of the inevitability of his return: With François Hollande's public approval ratings after one year in office at historic lows, and four years more to go, the speculation is that Sarkozy could make a come-back, either as the candidate of the UMP, or as the candidate of a newly-created Sarkozy party.
The latter is not as unlikely as it seems. The UMP was created out of the union of three center-right parties, the RPR, the DL and the UDF in 2002. Strong Sarkozy supporters like Valerie Pécresse and Laurent Wauquiez, both former Sarkozy ministers, would rally to him. And there are others. He could raise the money.
However, there is a fly in the ointment: Alain Juppé. A man, who, as Prime Minister was widely disliked by many, yet acknowledged as brilliant and capable (it was during his first mayoralty of Bordeaux that the city's successful restoration was initiated and brought to completion), he now leads in polls of UMP voters asked who would make a good president. While Copé may be most dynamic (54%), and Fillon just as courageous (36%), Juppé is now viewed by most UMP militants (the French term for party activists) as most likeable, most unifying, and closest to the people. Sacre bleu!
Juppé, who will be 71 in 2017, is having a bit of his own back in the latest polls. The former Prime Minister during the Presidency of Jacques Chirac, Sarkozy's predecessor, Juppé was forced to resign his Presidency of the UMP in July 2004 after being found guilty in a corruption scandal the previous January. He watched from the sidelines as Nicolas Sarkozy declared himself president of the party and candidate for the Presidency in 2005 . He was never a member of the Sarkozy cabinet, but remained active as mayor of Bordeaux for another term. Today, Nicolas Sarkozy must be asking himself whether Alain Juppé is a real threat to his comeback, Juppé having been identified as, between the three contenders for the hearts of UMP loyalists, "having the most points in common with Nicolas Sarkozy".
That the return of two men whose earlier careers in French politics were marked by their capacity to inspire violently negative passions is now welcome, is telling. The dearth of leadership in the UMP, Hollande's lack of leadership, the temporary weakness of the FN, the sclerotic French economy; all combined make Sarkozy and Juppé look like wise men.
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